Prospecting in Them Thar Hills
[Apple] are so successful in their execution that they need the next huge thing to make the stock actually rally. You’ve got to know what the next goldmine is going to be. - Michael Yoshikami
This is mortifyingly stupid. But it exemplifies the labored logic which underlies financial markets and stock price performance. Consistent long-term performance will be deemed a bore, while vapid bangs draw attention and price appreciation. Even when touters are hard-pressed to explain why a business makes sense.
Find a goldmine indeed. Never mind that it’s an inch deep and a minute long.
The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands. - Warren Buffet (emphasis added)